The US growth rate over the past decade still exceeds that of China (6%), Britain and France (5%), Japan (near zero) and Germany (which experienced a small decline).
The immigrant inflow to the US has also compensated for the ageing of the native population once the post-war baby boom bulge of 1945-65 receded.
In 1950, the American age-structure showed width at the bottom among the under-30 bands and was narrowest in the oldest bands.
In 2000, the middle bands (35-54 years) were the widest, as the baby-boom bulge worked its way through the age structure. By 2050, the older bands (55 years and above) will have widened significantly, but will be supported by still wider pre-30 age bands.
This will keep the US median age around 35-38 years at mid-century, but the most pessimistic estimates suggest that the EU median will exceed 52 years (compared to 37.7 years in 2003).
This could result by mid-century in a doubling of the ratio of retirees to workers that would have serious consequences for economic productivity, pension benefits and public programmes.
As the non-white population grows, the advantage could shift decisively to the Democrats, even in states today considered Red.
If this were the case, the presently rock-ribbed Republican state of Texas may be the first to feel the effects of demographic change on its partisan leaning.
I haven't found a good description for my blog yet. This is a personal blog where I post links on environmentalism, world finance and events, business education and sustainability-related articles -- with the occasional linguistic wrench thrown in for good measure. The interesting (weird) personal stuff about me is from 2008-back, so if you are my mom and are looking for the pictures, look on the right of the screen to where the years are listed, and then click on 2008. Go backwards from there.
No comments:
Post a Comment